The global economy according to JP Morgan and Donald Rumsfeld

One of the best macro-economic and stock market commentaries I listen to is the JP Morgan’s quarterly “Guide to the Markets,” presented by the excellent Karen Ward, a Chief Market Strategist at the investment firm. In a recent webinar she naturally highlighted the 180 degree turnaround in market sentiment since the end of the year. The key factors have been …

Positive Start to 2019

In my last blog post on 10/1/19 I highlighted a number of things that would be good for equity markets, the first was the Federal Reserve, the US central bank pausing on interest rate rises. On Wednesday the Fed announced borrowing costs would be unchanged. The tone of their statement was much more dovish than previously. They recognised that inflation …

Prospects for 2019

We all know the New Year and New Year’s resolutions don’t really count for much. After all we are the same people on the 1st January as we were on December 31st and we will carry the same baggage and issues into 2019 as we had in 2018. So it is with the global economy and stock markets. We all …

Global Stock Market Falls

They say timing is everything and on reflection the timing of yesterday’s investment blog post about price and value was inappropriate. Global stock markets have tumbled in the last week. An article yesterday on the BBC News website provides a succinct explanation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45820640 In summary aggressive interest rate policy in the US and US/China trade wars are the main culprits. …

Is the bull market long in the tooth?

The current global economic expansion or cycle has been going for just over nine years since the global financial crisis. Equities keep on rising and seem to shake off bad news. It is the second longest bull market in US history since records began in 1850. Next year it will become the longest. So is it long in the tooth …

Second quarter rally – Is the pesky blonde girl back ?

In the last investment blog I reported that global stock markets retreated in the first quarter of 2018. How things change! Half way through the second quarter there has been a marked improvement in investor sentiment and stock returns. The FTSE 100 index for example closed yesterday at 7,711, a significant recovery from its March 26th low of 6,889 and …

Dark Clouds Looming over the Bears’ House

For much of 2017 and the beginning of 2018, various commentators pointed to a Goldilocks economy, one that is not too hot nor not too cold. It has been characterised by synchronised economic growth around the world, with muted inflation and supportive central bank policy. It was also a period of rising stock markets and unprecedented low volatility. It proved …

Lions, £50 Notes, Bitcoins and the Yield Curve

I came away from a lunchtime investment seminar in Brighton on Thursday with lots of thoughts, a pack of fund brochures and a cuddly toy – a lion. No surprise perhaps since the company hosting the event was Liontrust Asset Management. They are a relatively small independent and respected fund manager with strong investment returns. Presenting was head of multi …

Investment Intelligence

I regularly attend investment seminars for IFAs run by Invesco Perpetual called “Investment Intelligence.” In a presentation last week the speaker reviewed the global economy and markets and addressed the issue of the US Federal Reserve unwinding its Quantitative Easing or QE programme. As you are aware central banks in the USA, UK, EU and Japan have undertaken considerable asset …

Eeyore Gets Onto The Dance Floor

Following a house and home office move just over a month ago I am slowly surfacing from the many distractions and I am starting to think about investment again. The equity sell-off I expected hasn’t materialised and so it was with interest I read an upbeat assessment for global and UK equities in a trade magazine by Trevor Greetham of …