Investment according to the Duke of York

It probably did not escape your attention that the FTSE 100 index set a new record high of 7,129 this week before falling back to close at 7,011 on Friday. The post Brexit vote bounce since 23rd June is attributable to the sharp drop in the pound against other major currencies notably the dollar and euro, boosting the value of …

A Month On From That Vote!

It would be fair to say that it has been an interesting time since the EU vote, both politically and from an investment perspective. The extent of the rally in UK equities has been surprising given the mantra, “markets hate uncertainty.” Logically equities should have fallen as there has been uncertainty by the bucket load. However the attractive investment opportunities …

A View of the Global Economy

I recently sat an online training module offered by Invesco Perpetual on the outlook for the global economy. It was a thorough and interesting analysis and I thought you may benefit from various observations I gleaned as you think about your own investments. Chief Economist, John Greenwood, who I have previously referred to as the sage of Henley re-iterated his …

Shares can go up as well as down

European stock markets have rallied today. As I write the FTSE 100 is up 2.29%. Up to now it was the case that “shares can go down as well as down,” so today’s rise is a welcome respite. However it could prove to be a dead cat bounce, a temporary relief rally with no life in it. (No cats were …

Looking Forward to 2016, Part 2

My last blog post on 11/12/15 covered some key economic themes for 2016. For the first post of the new year I want to briefly look at 2015 before expanding on the prospects for investors this year. I want to start with a question, you have a minute to think. Which were the four best performing equity sectors or markets …

Looking Forward to 2016

What will be key economic and investment themes going into 2016? In this blog post I highlight a number of points made by Schroders’ Senior European Economist and Strategist, Azad Zangana, made in a webinar I attended earlier this week. His analysis was one I broadly concur with. Zangana suggested four economic issues could be significant in 2016: Dollar strength …

Super Taper Tantrum?

You may recall back in May 2013 there was a sharp sell-off in equities and fixed interest when Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank announced that tapering of QE was ready to start. The market ignored the good news that the patient, the US economy could come off its money printing life support and …

Which Assets And Markets Will Fare Best in 2015?

For mere mortals accurately predicting the future of investments is probably as successful as consulting Mystic Meg with her crystal ball or the Oracle in BBC’s Saturday night drama Atlantis. For example I wonder who guessed the oil price would collapse to the extent it did in 2014? In the absence of Meg and Juliet Stevenson, their fees are too …

Postscript to Market Sell-Off

Further to my commentary on the market sell-off in my last blog post I am writing to clarify a few points after feedback from a reader. I may have not explained my thoughts clearly enough whilst certain use of language could have been misinterpreted. Firstly I was not intending to suggest that China’s debt or Europe’s deflation or any of …

Market Sell Off

In my last investment blog a couple of weeks ago I reported a downturn in equity markets. Since then sentiment has deteriorated further to trigger a major sell off.  So what are causes? The main culprits cited are weak economic data in the US, slowdown and debt in China, fears that Germany is heading for recession, deflation and lack of …