The Warning of a Canary or Cry of a Wolf?

I had put writing investment blogs on the back burner during a very busy period of advising clients but having recently read dire warnings of impending financial crisis I thought I had better put pen to paper. Firstly a few weeks ago veteran US investor Jim Rogers expressed fears of a financial crash on a scale that will be the …

Debt Mountain Danger

As you are no doubt aware, in the UK although the deficit has been falling since 2010, debt has risen. This is simple maths. Until the budget returns to surplus i.e. the government earns more than it spends, UK plc will have to borrow more to fill the gap and total national debt will continue to rise. Recently I have …

The Sage of Henley

The famous and highly successful US investor Warren Buffet is commonly known as the Sage of Omaha. He is noted as a shrewd and long term investor with a strong focus on value. He is also the source of insightful and humorous sayings on investment. It is worth googling and reading his quotes but two of my favourites, I have …

What Investors Should Expect in 2014

On one hand judging by what happened in 2013 we should expect the unexpected. This time last year we faced clouds on the horizon – a potential triple dip recession in the UK, a hard landing in China, further crisis in the EuroZone, the fiscal cliff in the US and an unknown outcome of Abenomics in Japan. In the end …

Prospects for UK Inflation

The prospects for UK inflation has divided investors but I have held the view for several years now that inflation will surprise on the upside. Opponents point to the muted effect on inflation from QE and slow economic recovery from the worst global financial crisis and recession in living memory. Governments, companies and individuals have been paying off debt and …

Trouble Across the Pond?

Much of the recent investment news has been focused on the US economy, not unsurprising since this is the world’s largest and most significant. Back in May Ben Bernanke the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, equivalent to the Bank of England, announced that tapering of quantitative easing (this round is QE3) might commence shortly. Currently the Fed is buying …

Market Update & Commentary

After a volatile seven weeks on global markets equities have been rising steadily. The FTSE 100 hit a recent low of 6,029 on 24th June; yesterday it closed at 6,505. I sense the improving confidence has come from positive economic data, a focus on fundamentals and a realisation that a stampede to the exit by investors on news of tapering …

Which Side of the Coin?

Further to recent blog posts on the sell off in global stockmarkets, investing in line with fundamental economic principles and investor psychology, a thoughtful article I read from HSBC Global Asset Management highlighted the selective view of investors. The bears were out in force last week after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Benanke’s statement that the Fed may start tapering QE …

What’s Up Doc?

So what’s up with the markets? Sharp falls globally, the FTSE 100 pulling back from over 6,800 on a charge towards the highest ever close of 6,930 in December 1999 and the Japanese market falling 10%, that’s technically called a correction. I love the euphemism. As to causes the two best explanations I have read are firstly mixed signals from the US about QE. …

“Sell in May and Go Away or Continue to Gamble on the QE Rally?”

This was the title of a very readable and thought provoking newsletter for investment professionals I recently received from Apollo Multi Asset Management, a specialist investment company I have used for some of my clients. In the article they explained the prime reason for the equity rally is Quantitative Easing (QE) – money printing and asset purchases by central banks, …