Investment Themes for 2017

At the start of the year fund managers, economists and other investment professionals as usual have put forward their views on the state of global economy and the direction of equity and bond markets. So what will be the key themes for investors in 2017? There is a wide consensus that this year could be a pivotal year for markets. …

Investment according to the Duke of York

It probably did not escape your attention that the FTSE 100 index set a new record high of 7,129 this week before falling back to close at 7,011 on Friday. The post Brexit vote bounce since 23rd June is attributable to the sharp drop in the pound against other major currencies notably the dollar and euro, boosting the value of …

Word on the Street

As I have gone about my business in the last month or so I have been picking up a consistent consensus view from fund managers. The figurative word on the street is that the global equity sell-off at the start of the year was an over-reaction, something which I thought at the time. Investor sentiment is clearly more volatile than …

Roller Coasters & Defensive Back Fours

Yesterday the FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level since August 2012. The sharp global stock market falls in the last six months have been attributed to fears of slowing economic growth in China. However China has had a side-kick to gang up on stock markets – the falling oil price.  A clear linkage exists between the two. Both are …

Markets Rally

One of the first things I do when I get up is to check how the Asian stock markets have performed overnight. It was a great surprise this morning to have seen that the Nikkei 225, the leading index of Japanese stocks was up almost 6%. I cannot recall such a huge one day rise in a major market in …

Markets in a Tailspin

You are no doubt aware that global stockmarkets have sold off sharply this week. Some markets and stocks are in “correction territory,” defined as being down 10% or more off their peaks, for example the FTSE 100 index whilst others are in a “bear market,” down more than 20%, for example the Shanghai Composite Index and interestingly the US tech …

Bond Sell Off, Investor Fears and Strategies

May has seen a sell-off in government bonds, in the UK, US and Germany. Yields had reached ultra-low figures and a correction was not unexpected. However investors are asking if this signifies the end of the bull market in bonds which has run for about 25 years. It commenced around 1990 when a secular long term trend of falling global …

A Tale of Two Economies – Japan

This blog post is about how economies and the performance of equity markets are related with particular reference to Japan. The Link Between Economies and Stockmarkets It is often thought there is a close correlation between how well an economy is doing with the performance of its stockmarket; so if the former does well the latter will as well. A …

Half Time Team Talk

In football parlance, for investors we have just come out for the second half. So what is the half time assessment of stockmarkets in 2014? My brief comments are based on my own observations and those of Neptune Investment Management, M&G and Neil Woodford, formerly of Invesco Perpetual and manager of the newly launched Woodford Equity Income fund. Equity Market …

Climbing a Wall of Worry

Imagine being a rock climber. The higher you get up the rock face or cliff the scarier it gets, particularly if you dare to look down. So it is for investors as stock market indices in the US and the UK scale new heights. A widely expressed fear is we are heading for a crash and investors are getting nervous. So should you be banking …